Entering the last week of 2010 presidential campaign Tymoshenko finds herself in a complete political isolation. None of the candidates, who lost in the first round, are willing to rally their supporters behind her candidacy. A few prominent figures, like former President Kravchuk, who campaign on her behalf, have questionable reputation and no public following. With over 2.5 million votes needed just to catch up with Yanukovych, Tymoshenko’s lack of endorsements from other candidates, who garnered over 7 million votes, will likely mean her electoral defeat. 

Tigipko

Serhiy Tigipko’s 3.2 mln. votes is the most appealing prize for the frontrunners. If Yanukovych gets most of them, he is assured to maintain his confident lead. So, Tymoshenko’s task is at least to split Tigipko’s coalition. And since most of his voters are in Ukraine’s East and South, she needs Tigipko’s backing to have a chance to lure them to her side. Tigipko, however, strongly refuses to make any public endorsements. 

Over the last two weeks Tymoshenko issued numerous statements offering Tigipko a position of Prime Minister in the case of her victory. The extent of her desperation became clear a few days ago, when she said that Tigipko already accepted her offer. In response, Tigipko refuted Tymoshenko’s wors and reiterated that he would consider the offer of Prime Minister from either candidate only after they win the election.

As Tigipko explained in the recent television interview, his main reason of not supporting either candidate is that he cannot trust their words. The long history of cheating in Ukrainian politics made promises “cheap” and politicians distrustful of each other. For Tymoshenko this problem is especially acute given that throughout the campaign she argued that “Ukraine will not know the name of its Prime Minister” once she becomes president, meaning that she wants a faceless loyal technocrat to control the government on her behalf. Tigipko, certainly, does not fit the bill. Her latest reversal makes Tigipko obviously suspicious that she only wants to take his votes and run away with them.

Yatsenyuk

The youngest presidential candidate received 1,7 million votes, mostly in his native Chernivtsi oblast and the Western Ukraine. Yatsenyuk not only refuses to back any of the remaining candidates, but also actively calls on his supporters to vote against both of them. In his interviews Yatsenyuk keeps using the harsh rhetoric of the campaign trail accusing Yanukovych and Tymoshenko of incompetence and corruption. This presents the most significant challenge for Tymoshenko since Yatsenyuk’s voters are largely those, who supported the Orange Revolution, but became disillusioned with both Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. Therefore, only Yatsenyuk’s strong endorsement can motivate them to come to the polls and vote for her as a “lesser evil.” Otherwise, most of his voters are likely not to show up at the polls for the second round.

Tymoshenko tries hard to pretend that she views Yatsenyuk, whom she earlier called Yanukovych’s “technical candidate” as a natural part of her team. During her today’s presentation in Davos she said that she would want Yatsenyuk to work with her once she becomes president since they have the same vision for Ukraine. Yatsenyuk, however, is unlikely to soften his anti-Tymoshenko rhetoric in the remaining days. He holds her personally responsible for numerous personal attack ads against him, which were distributed across Ukraine in August-September of 2009. At that time Tymoshenko was threatened with Yatsenyuk’s rising popularity and used her proxies to question his Ukrainian nationality and accuse him of representing the Jewish oligarchic lobby. So, apart from the desire to maintain his independent political identity, for Yatsenyuk rejecting Tymoshenko’s offers is also a question of personal self-respect.

Yushchenko

Two days after the dismal showing in the first round President of Ukraine made another public statement calling both frontrunners a “Kremlin project.” In categorical terms and emotionally charged voice he asserted that that he would vote against both candidates. In return, Tymoshenko accused the president of “betraying the nation.”

Yushchenko’s 1.3 mln. votes come mostly from three Western Ukrainian oblasts and, given the dynamics of his polls, at least half of his voters decided to support him in the last few weeks of the campaign. Yushchenko’s continued rejection of Tymoshenko may somewhat depress the turn-out in Galicia. Still, voters in these oblasts are more likely to come to the polls and support Tymoshenko given the continued animosity there towards a seemingly more pro-Russian Yanukovych. For Yushchenko’s nationalist electorate, this will still be the main motivation.

Tymoshenko has not received any support from all other candidates, who represented “the Orange voters.” Oleg Tyahnybok, an ultranationalist from the Western Ukraine, said he would endorse Tymoshenko only if she fulfills a list of about 20 demands, which included getting rid of Ukraine-haters in her close circle and publicizing her secret deals with Putin. Anatoliy Grytsenko, a former Defense Minister backed largely in Central Ukraine also called on voting against both candidates. Together they gained almost 700.000 votes.

At the same time,Yanukovych already received endorsement from the Ukrainian communists, whose leader Petro Symonenko received 3.5% or about 800.000 votes. Furthemore, the parliament’s speaker Lytvyn with 2.3% or almost 600.000 votes is also currently leaning in support of Yanukovych.

Glaring lack of allies willing to help her rectify the failing campaign is the cost that Tymoshenko now has to pay for the years of hateful rhetoric and irresponsible accusations, which became her trademark political style. While mastering the skill of vilifying her opponents and selling herself as an epitome of all the good in the world, Tymoshenko alienated the absolute majority of Ukraine’s political elite and the large part of the public. While suppressing any signs of an independent opinion among her followers, Tymoshenko ended up surrounded with lackeys and schemers rather than thinkers and leaders. Her poor showing in the first round may have made Tymoshenko realize the extent of her actual political fallibility. Still, will she recognize the defeat when she sees it?