“When I become president the country will not know the name of its Prime Minister” – with this pledge Yulia Tymoshenko made her post-election plans clear. As president she wants to maintain a direct control over the government’s agenda and policy priorities while relegating the Prime Minister to the role of an operations manager. Her perfect candidate for the job, then, will be someone who proved absolute loyalty over the years and showed complete lack of any public appeal.

From this standpoint, an ideal candidate seems to be Oleksandr Turchynov, who has been Tymoshenko’s right-hand man for as long as she has been active in politics.

The Uncharismatic Follower

As Deputy Prime Minister in Tymoshenko’s government Turchynov controlled the crucial policy areas  – energy, transportation and the law-enforcement. As the head of Tymoshenko’s election campaign, Turchynov dealt with the most sensitive issues – fund-raising and local organizing. In all of these roles he proved to be the master of backroom dealing and political intrigues, while remaining Tymoshenko’s closest and most trusted confidante

As the same time, his only attempted run for public office ended in disaster. As a mayoral candidate in last year’s election in Kyiv he proved to be utterly incapable of walking the ropes of public politics and attracting any genuine public following. Moreover, he was visibly uncomfortable during his campaign appearances and when addressing the large crowd. As a result, he lost to a clownish and crooked incumbent Leonid Chernovetsky even while having Tymoshenko’s political and administrative machine behind him. Thus, Turchynov promises to be the kind of invisible and obedient Prime Minister that Tymoshenko will be looking for if elected president.

However, Tymoshenko’s wish may not be that easy to realize.

Barriers to No-name Prime Minister

First of all, to become the new head of government Turchynov will have to get the nomination of the new parliamentary majority. And while an ideal figure for Tymoshenko, his candidacy may give rise to objections among BYuT’s potential coalition partners in the parliament. In this case, however, Turchynov is likely to remain an acting Prime Minister – the position he will automatically assume as the first Deputy Prime Minister once Tymoshenko takes the president’s oath of office. Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko already suggested that having an acting Prime Minister would be even more politically expedient for President Tymoshenko since it would allow her to run government’s meetings and become the only fully empowered top public official in the country.  

Secondly, Tymoshenko may be forced to promise the post of Prime Minister to other presidential runner-ups in order to improve her election chances. All of the latest election polls show that Yanukovych strengthened his lead over Tymoshenko, which hovers now around 12%. In order to take the lead in the second round Tymoshenko will need get an endorsement from one of the second-tier candidates – Tyhipko or Yatsenyuk.

Yatsenyuk’s voters – concentrated largely in Western Ukraine - are most likely to vote for her even without a direct support from their candidate. Moreover, Yatsenyuk no longer boasts the third place in the race, which has been taken by the ambitious ex-banker Serhiy Tyhipko.

Tyhipko’s support, currently estimated around 8%, is concentrated in the East and South of the country. His potential voters are mostly Yanukovych’s former backers, who now seek an alternative candidate. Thus, his endorsement may be crucial since it will allow Tymoshenko to broaden her popular appeal in the South-Eastern Ukraine and minimize the number of additional votes Yanukovych will gain there in the second round. 

The Prospects of Tymoshenko-Tyhipko Duo

The price tag for Tyhipko’s endorsement is clearly the post of Prime Minister. However, he is not willing to be subjugated to the role of Tymoshenko’s shadow in the government. As he explained during one of recent public TV appearances, he will agree to this job only in the capacity of an independent decision-maker, who sets his own priorities and pursues his own goals. While having a skill for compromise, Tyhipko already felt the taste of public politics and his name would certainly be in the news if he gets to head the government. At the same time Tyhipko recognizes that Tymoshenko is unlikely to accept it so he now says that he does not see himself as Prime Minister under her.

The results of the first round, however, may push Tymoshenko to agree to a more independent Prime Minister then she wishes for. If she loses more than 10 points to Yanukovych and Tyhipko comes third, she will have to make a deal. Still, in order to be credible any job offer from Tymoshenko to Tyhipko should take the form of a very public commitment and additional private guarantees. In case this happens and Tymoshenko wins, Tyhipko is most likely to garner the large majority in the parliament attracting even many of the Party of Regions deputies, who will view him as their insurance against Tymoshenko’s revenge.

The stability of Tymoshenko-Tyhipko duo will depend on the extent to which they manage to coordinate their policy agendas, respect their power boundaries and tame their political egos. If they succeed in this, their comparative strengths can make this new political tandem the best possible outcome to emerge out of Ukraine’s 2010 presidential election.

Happy New Year!