Back to Integration

Global Climate Change and Biodiversity

"The cummulative and additive effects of the atmosphere will impact all biodiversity processes. There are many common elements such as energy, moisture and transportation mechanisms, that directly affect the structure and functioning of biodiversity and their many interrelated populations" (McIver & Urquizo, 2000).

Projected change in surface temperature for June, July and August (JJA) and December, January, February (DJF) - large version (160 KB jpg image) or small version (66 KB jpg image)
Source:   This maps was generated by Boer et al.(a) and (b), (2000) with the model known as the 1st generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM1) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) (Flato et al., 2000). It includes the effects of aerosols

The CO₂ concentration projections for various emission scenarios (32KB jpg image)
Source:  Modified by Urquizo from IPCC (1990 and 1995) reports.

Global rates of change in biodiversity - large version (347 KB jpg image) or small version (66 KB jpg image).
Areas in the world where species may have to achieve unusually high migration rates (greater than 1000 meters per year) in order to keep up with 2 x CO₂ global warming in 100 years
Source: Malcolm and Markham, 2000.

Global habitat loss that could occur under doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations - large version (379 KB jpg image) small version (71 KB jpg image).
Shades of red indicate the percent of vegetation modules that predicted a change in biome type of the underlying map grid cell.
Source: Malcolm and Markham, 2000.

Predicted percentage species loss for habitat patches that will persist in a 2 x CO₂ climate. As habitat is lost, patches become smaller. Based on species-area relationships, the reduction in species richness can be predicted as a function of the decrease in patch area - a large (311 KB jpg image) and small version (61 KB jpg image). Shades of red indicate average species loss for 14 combinations of linked climate change/vegetation change models.
Source: Malcolm and Markham, 2000.

 References:

Boer, G.J., G. Flato and D. Ramsden, 2000: A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected change for the 21st century. Climate Dynamics, in press.

Boer, G.J., G. Flato, M.C. Reader and D. Ramsden, 2000: A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: experimental design and comparison with the instrumental record for the 20th century. Climate Dynamics, in press.

Flato, G.M., G.J. Boer, W. Lee, M. McFarlane, D. Ramsden, M. Reader and A. Weaver, 2000: The CCCma global coupled climate model and its climate. Climate Dynamics, in press.

IPCC. 1990. Climate Change - The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Ed. J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums. Cambridge University Press.

IPCC. 1995. Climate Change 1995 - The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change. Ed. J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Katternberg and K. Maskell. Cambridge University Press.

Malcolm, Jay R. and Adam Markham. 2000. Global Warming and terrestrial Biodeversity Decline:  A Modelling Approach. A report prepared for the WWF.

Home | About IMAP | Map Collections | IMAP Papers | IMAP Posters | IMAP Lab at U of T | Contacts

Site maintained by the Environmental Information Office at I.E.S. and was last changed 1 May, 2000.

It is part of the larger site Environmental Research and Teaching at the University of Toronto. Contact judith.wilson@utoronto.ca

Site constructed by Peter MIlanov (peter.milanov@utoronto.ca).